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SpaceX's $500bn revenue forecast is doing the work, not the launch cadence
The rebound case for SpaceX rests on a forecast, and forecasts are the weakest input a valuation has. A $500 billion revenue target converts a launch business into a volume story, and volume stories get multiples applied to them.
The arithmetic is worth stating plainly: at a $500 billion run rate, even a 10x sales multiple is a $5 trillion equity. That is not a stretch of the imagination, but it is a long way from a launch manifest.
What is checkable is cadence — flights per month against the manifest — and that is where a reader should start. Revenue is the output of cadence, not a substitute for it.
Written from public disclosure. Where a figure is quoted it is the company's own, dated in the text; no figure here is a forecast by Lothbury Research.
Published for information only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation. This note is not prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No position is held in the security covered.