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Case studies › UBER

Uber's Q3 miss is a mix problem wearing a growth costume

Not all misses are the same event. A demand miss says the market is smaller than assumed. A mix miss says the same demand arrived at a worse price, and it can be fixed by pricing rather than by waiting.

The distinction lives in the segment table, and it is usually visible within one quarter. A falling take rate with flat bookings is a mix story; falling bookings with a flat take rate is not.

Both are real. Only one of them is a reason to re-underwrite the terminal value.

Written from public disclosure. Where a figure is quoted it is the company's own, dated in the text; no figure here is a forecast by Lothbury Research.

Published for information only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation. This note is not prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No position is held in the security covered.

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